Free NBA Picks & Predictions - Today's Best NBA Bets (2024)

The debate of “Rust vs. Rest” is on full display in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, with the Celtics shelved for 10 days between games. However, Boston is the best first-half bet in basketball, owning a 63-32-1 record against the 1H spread on the season (+25.3 units). During the playoffs, Boston is scoring 59.4 points in the opening 24 minutes while Dallas has been slower out of the blocks, averaging less than 53 1H points in the postseason. The Garden will be rocking for Game 1 and I like the Celtics to cover the -3.5 1H spread – which is already up to -4 at sharper books.

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Jason Logan - Pick Made 6 days, 7 hrs, 57 min ago.

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Gafford has unlocked attacks on the rim further than anyone running partner in Luka Doncic’s NBA career. It is effective enough, Boston has not seen anything like it this postseason. Gafford scored at least 10 points in four of the five games against the Timberwolves, who have better interior defense than the Celtics do, and he has topped this points prop in nine of 11 games in the last two rounds. Kristaps Porzingis may be healthy, but Doncic will draw him into pick-and-roll coverages plenty, leaving Gafford available for lobs or offensive rebounds. This points prop should be at least a bucket higher.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 4 days, 2 hrs, 50 min ago.

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Dallas’s defense has obvious matchups for Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis. But to slow Derrick White, the Mavs will have to rely on Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving, not exactly defensive aces. White’s usage rate has climbed this postseason, up to 20.3% since Porzingis’s injury. That usage has shown most from deep, taking 2.2 more 3s per game than he did in the regular season. Hitting more than 40% of those looks, White should take advantage of his offensive-minded defenders.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 3 days, 2 hrs, 6 min ago.

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Luka Doncic's assists prop is a bet I'll be looking to target throughout the NBA Finals because of how the Boston Celtics have guarded him in the past and their defensive principles in general. The Celtics blitz at one of the lowest rates in the NBA, which will keep the ball in Doncic's hands and allow him to get into the lane and generate shots for his teammates. Doncic has also shown he is capable of getting to his spots by using his size, strength, and basketball IQ against Jrue Holiday, which will allow him to create offense for his teammates. The total of 8.5 for Doncic's assists prop is more representative of how the Minnesota Timberwolves guarded Doncic than how the Celtics will. Doncic is projected to have 9.6 assists in Game 1, which allows us to price the Over 8.5 assists at -160.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 1 day, 7 hrs, 37 min ago.

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All the attention is on the injury to Kristaps Porzingis, but the extended time off also gives Dallas Mavericks forward Maxi Kleber more time to work on his injured shoulder and, more importantly, his three-point shooting stroke. Kleber returned from injury in the Western Conference Finals against the Timberwolves but looked hesitant to shoot the ball because of his shoulder injury. With his points total now trading at 2.5 (-115) for the Over, I think we need to attack this number. It's very possible that Kleber could see more minutes than expected, playing alongside Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively, as a primary defender on Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown. Kleber's threes made prop is also trading at -115 for the Over 0.5 makes, but why would you bet that when one three-pointer will win you this bet and you have more ways to win?

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 1 day, 7 hrs, 32 min ago.

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Jayson Tatum is the ideal go-to player for how Joe Mazzulla’s team is constructed.His willingness to take on the roles of glass cleaner and playmaker has him leading theBoston Celticsin both rebounds (10.4) and assists (5.9) this postseason. Tatum is one of only three players to average double-digit rebounds and more than 5.5 assists this playoffs — the other two being Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid, who account for the last four MVP awards.

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Rob Paul - Pick Made 7 hrs, 37 min ago.

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This bet was released by Adam Scherer on the NBA Prop Picks show powered by EV Analytics. Luka Doncic had a 38.8% usage rate in the regular season against the Boston Celtics, which is high, but that was with a completely different roster for the Dallas Mavericks. When the Celtics and Mavericks last met on March 1, it was right after the trade deadline when the Mavericks were still working on integrating PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford into the lineup. Overall, Doncic's usage percentage on this version of the Mavericks is down a couple of percent in the NBA Playoffs compared to the regular season. Doncic is projected to score 30.4 points on Thursday against the Celtics, which means we have a nice probability gap on the under 31.5 points trading at -105.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 6 hrs, 33 min ago.

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This bet was released by Adam Scherer on the NBA Prop Picks show powered by EV Analytics. You can catch the full show on the Covers YouTube channel. Dereck Lively's assists prop benefited from the Minnesota Timberwolves sending blitzes towards Luka Doncic in the Western Conference Finals, but the Boston Celtics present a completely different matchup. For starters, the Celtics blitz at one of the lowest rates in the NBA, which would hurt the potential assists for Lively. Since the Celtics like to mix up their coverages and are comfortable with strategies other than blitzing, there's also a chance that the majority of their blitzes occur when Daniel Gafford is in the game instead of Lively because Gafford isn't as good of a passer as Lively. Lively is projected to have 1.2 assists on Thursday against the Celtics in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 6 hrs, 28 min ago.

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Dallas has covered the 1Q spread in 10 of 17 games this postseason, notably going 5-2 against the spread in the 1Q when an underdog that night. And the Celtics have not played particularly well in 1Qs, no matter who they have gone against this postseason. Boston is — and this record may be charitable, giving the Celtics the benefit of the doubt on some varied numbers — 2-6 ATS in the first quarter in its last eight games. The depleted Cavaliers and Pacers repeatedly keep things close through the first frame.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 5 hrs, 29 min ago.

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The two Mavs who are most used to this moment are Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, offensive-minded powers. If they dial in while other Mavs fray, Dallas will need to commit to its offense early. And eight of Boston’s last 11 first quarters would have cleared this total. Admittedly, three out of four of those were against the Pacers and those games had inflated scores thanks to the Pacers’ general preferred style. But five out of seven were in games with lower totals, ones against the Cavs and the Heat.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 5 hrs, 26 min ago.

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In 14 postseason games, Brown has taken the first shot in four of them. That rate alone presents value on betting Brown to score tonight’s first basket at +500. He has made the first basket in six of them. That strengthens this value to a point of making it a must-bet. The greatest risk to this value may be the opening tip. But Kristaps Porzingis’s return to action lessens that risk. In his 61 games this season, Boston won the opening tip 68.8% of the time, 42 games. By comparison, in Daniel Gafford’s 38 games starting for the Mavericks, he won the tip on just 17 of them, 45.5%.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 5 hrs, 25 min ago.

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Doncic’s combination of size and vision is among the best in NBA history. It means every pass is an option, and every angle is a threat when he has the ball.The Celtics blitzed less than any team in the NBA this season, and they also hardly blitzed Doncic during the regular season. However, failure to get the ball out of Luka's hands will unlock his deadly playmaking. He’ll use screens to eventually targetKristaps PorzingisorAl Horford, neither of whom can defend Luka on an island, and he'll hunt them relentlessly. If Boston's bigs drop, that opens up the easy pass to the screener for a pick and pop, whether that’sP.J. WashingtonorDerrick Jones Jr.

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Rory Breasail - Pick Made 4 hrs, 55 min ago.

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Al Horford has put up erratic numbers in these playoffs, but he’s still capable of making teams pay when he gets into a rhythm. He knocked down seven 3-pointers on the way to 23 points in Game 3 against the Indiana Pacers, and he’s been willing to jack up double-digit attempts from deep. With Kirstaps Porzingis shaking off the rust and the Mavs looking to isolate Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, Horford will do enough to clear this low total.

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Tom Oldfield - Pick Made 4 hrs, 41 min ago.

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Kyrie Irving was held under 24 points in both regular season matchups against Boston, including a 9-for-23 shooting effort for 19 points in the most recent meeting, and Kristaps Porzingis’ presence in the paint will be an added deterrent.

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Tom Oldfield - Pick Made 4 hrs, 40 min ago.

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I see the greatest value in the Luka Doncic assists prop, with the O/U line set at 8.5. He had 11 dimes against Boston in the most recent meeting and shredded the Celtics defense for 13 earlier in the season. That makes this Over one of the most appealing picks on the board — and Doncic has shown great trust in his teammates on this NBA Finals run, from the lobs toDaniel GaffordandDereck Lively IIand the swing passes toP.J. WashingtonandDerrick Jones Jr.

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Tom Oldfield - Pick Made 4 hrs, 39 min ago.

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